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Churn will be the challenge as broadband competition strengthens

01 February 2008

The good news is that 48 million more Western European households will get broadband over the next six years, says Pete Nuthall. The bad news for ISPs is that churn will rise as customers look for better deals

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Broadband household penetration in 2007 and annual growth varied widely across Europe

Residential broadband penetration in Western Europe is set to rise by 48 million households over the next six years, from 44% at the end of 2007 to 71% by the end of 2013, according to a new study by Forrester Research. Over the same period, Forrester projects the continual marginalisation of dial-up services, which will account for only 2% of all online connections.
The impact of emerging technologies such as WiMax and fibre to the home will be limited to 8% of all internet connections.
The addition of 48 million new broadband connections may seem a healthy opportunity for broadband suppliers, but our forecast reveals that the key challenge for ISPs will be managing customer churn.
In 2008, we estimate the level of churn to be 23% across Western Europe, and this will peak in...