Analysts from Paul Budde Communication look at the latest data on the Latin America and Caribbean markets for fixed and mobile services, including broadband internet
The global financial crisis had little impact on the telecom market of Latin America and the Caribbean. The fixed line sector continued to stagnate as it has been doing since 2001, and the mobile sector slowed down as it is approaching saturation levels in several major countries. The fixed broadband sector followed a naturally decreasing growth curve.
The fastest growing market is currently mobile broadband, which has become an important option for internet services throughout Latin America since it is available in many areas that have no fixed-line broadband coverage.
The service is commonly used with netbooks, notebooks or laptops that have either a built-in 3G receiver or a plug-in 3G data card. Several Latin American mobile operators have entered into agreements with manufacturers to offer mobile broadband plans with a netbook or notebook included.
The region’s telecom market is expected to follow the same trend through 2010, with limited growth in fixed-line and gradual slowing in mobile telephony subscriber growth. Demand for fixed broadband will remain strong; this market has much potential, particularly if regulations are introduced to increase competition. Meanwhile, mobile broadband will become increasingly popular particularly due to the shortcomings of the fixed broadband sector and the expansion of 3G networks.
1.
Mobile penetration in Latin America and the Caribbean is around 90%, which is close to the world average. Roughly 81% of the market is served by six major multinational operators: América Móvil, Telefónica, Portugal Telecom, Telecom Italia, Millicom International and Digicel.
In some countries, people have one SIM card for each mobile company. Most mobile subscribers are prepaid.
|
Year |
Subscribers (million) |
Annual change |
Penetration |
|
2000 |
63 |
+55% |
12.1% |
|
2001 |
87 |
+37% |
16.5% |
|
2002 |
101 |
+16% |
18.8% |
|
2003 |
124 |
+23% |
22.8% |
|
2004 |
175 |
+42% |
31.7% |
|
2005 |
240 |
+37% |
42.8% |
|
2006 |
308 |
+28% |
54.8% |
|
2007 |
381 |
+24% |
66.9% |
|
2008 |
455 |
+19% |
78.8% |
|
2009 (e) |
507 |
+11% |
86.8% |
|
2010 (e) |
550 |
+9% |
93.1% |
(Source: BuddeComm: Latin America - Mobile Market - Overview & Statistics)
2.
Brazil and Mexico together account for almost half of all mobile subscribers in the region. Several countries in South and Central America have passed the 100% penetration milestone.
In the Caribbean, most small island nations have more than 100% or even 200% penetration, but subscription numbers are sometimes inflated by the inclusion of tourist or migrant worker subscribers who are not included in population data.
Table 2 – Selected Latin American countries – mobile subscribers – 2009
|
Country |
Subscribers (million) |
Annual change |
Penetration |
|
Argentina |
48 |
+10% |
117.1% |
|
Brazil |
176 |
+16% |
88.7% |
|
Chile |
17 |
+8% |
103.8% |
|
Colombia |
40 |
+1% |
91.3% |
|
El Salvador |
7 |
+10% |
118.8% |
|
Mexico |
82 |
+5% |
73.8% |
|
Panama |
5 |
+44% |
145.3% |
|
Peru |
20 |
+10% |
68.5% |
|
Uruguay |
4 |
+12% |
115.9% |
|
Venezuela |
31 |
+10% |
115.7% |
(Source: BuddeComm based on Global Mobile with BuddeComm estimates)
3.
Most telecom markets in Latin America and the Caribbean have been both privatised and liberalised. Yet, while private investment has contributed to rapid growth in the non-basic services, such as mobile and long distance telephony, fixed lines have virtually ceased to grow, despite low teledensity.
Table 3 – Latin America – fixed lines in service and teledensity – 2000 - 2010
|
Year |
Fixed lines (million) |
Annual change |
Teledensity |
|
2000 |
77 |
+14% |
15% |
|
2001 |
86 |
+12% |
16% |
|
2002 |
89 |
+4% |
17% |
|
2003 |
92 |
+4% |
17% |
|
2004 |
96 |
+4% |
17% |
|
2005 |
98 |
+3% |
18% |
|
2006 |
100 |
+2% |
18% |
|
2007 |
102 |
+2% |
18% |
|
2008 |
106 |
+4% |
18% |
|
2009 (e) |
108 |
+2% |
18% |
|
2010 (e) |
109 |
+1% |
18% |
(Source: BuddeComm estimates: Latin America - Telecom Market, Regulatory Overview & Infrastructure)
4.
Latin America’s fixed broadband penetration is behind the global average.
ADSL is the prevailing technology. Cable modems, which occupy an important second place, is gaining market share thanks to triple play solutions, a popular option in a region where telecom companies continue to be vertically integrated.
Table 4 – Latin America - fixed broadband subscribers and penetration – 2001 - 2010
|
Year |
Subscribers (million) |
Annual change |
Penetration
per capita |
Household penetration |
|
2001 |
0.76 |
+169% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
2002 |
1.54 |
+102% |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
2003 |
2.67 |
+74% |
0.5% |
2.3% |
|
2004 |
5.19 |
+94% |
0.9% |
4.3% |
|
2005 |
8.96 |
+72% |
1.6% |
6.9% |
|
2006 |
13.96 |
+56% |
2.5% |
10.7% |
|
2007 |
20.29 |
+45% |
3.6% |
15.3% |
|
2008 |
28.20 |
+39% |
4.9% |
21.0% |
|
2009 (e) |
34.00 |
+21% |
5.8% |
25.0% |
|
2010 (e) |
38.00 |
+12% |
6.4% |
27.6% |
(Source: BuddeComm estimates: Latin America - Convergence, Broadband, & Internet Market)
5.
In terms of subscriber numbers, the Latin American broadband leaders are Brazil and Mexico. Together, these two countries account for about 62% of all broadband subscribers in the region.
In terms of broadband penetration, Chile is the regional leader.
Table 5 – Broadband subscribers and penetration – major countries – 2009
|
Country |
Subscribers (million) |
Annual change |
Penetration per capita |
Household penetration |
|
Argentina |
3.60 |
+13% |
9.0% |
32.5% |
|
Brazil |
11.45 |
+14% |
5.9% |
19.9% |
|
Chile |
1.69 |
+19% |
9.9% |
34.1% |
|
Colombia |
2.37 |
+25% |
5.3% |
24.1% |
|
Mexico |
9.68 |
+36% |
9.0% |
29.9% |
|
Venezuela |
1.41 |
+32% |
5.0% |
19.9% |
(Source: BuddeComm based on industry data with BuddeComm estimates)
Ó Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
www.budde.com.au